Oil price trades above $106 with a double top, bearish RSI divergence, and rising put activity pointing toward a $55 breakdown.

Against this backdrop, Rabobank expects oil prices to remain elevated through the year, forecasting Brent to average $107/bbl in Q2, before easing to $96 in Q3 and $90 in Q4. In longer term forecasts, the bank sees a more moderate environment, but still above pre-crisis norms.

Traders believe that the WTI crude oil price will continue rising in the coming weeks. A Polymarket poll with over $4 million in assets places the odds of it soaring to $120 this month at 69%. Odds of the price rising to $130 rose to 41%.

While crude oil futures have come down off their highs of about $120 per barrel set early Monday, they are still elevated due to the Iran war, which began on Saturday, Feb. 28, when the United States and Israel launched a joint air attack on Iran in an operation dubbed "Operation Epic Fury."

Stalled oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and output disruptions because of the Iran war have led analysts to increase their annual ​price forecasts by the most in Reuters poll records.

Crude oil remains bullish, testing recent highs, with key Fibonacci and ABCD pattern targets suggesting upside potential, though a short-term pullback may precede further gains.

At almost any moment in March 2026, a glance at the "10yr vs oil price" chart has revealed sufficient correlation to blame the bond rout on the energy price spiral. But the correlation is spotty at times and today is one of the starkest examples.

Oil prices have surged sharply back above the $100 mark, with markets increasingly pricing in the risk of a prolonged escalation in the US-Iran conflict. WTI crude jumped to around $110.85, up nearly 12% on the day, while Brent rose to $111.93, marking a decisive return to three-week highs.