The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its next policy decision on December 18, and an interest rate cut of 0.25% is widely anticipated. However, expectations for Fed policy beyond this week are less ...

The world is waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This week’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will present a valuable opportunity for Chair Jerome Powell to telegraph the ...

This is a joint post with Michael Weilandt. It was revised substantially after initial publication in response to helpful comments from Martin Sandbu, and additional information about the likely scope ...

Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates. The information from this statistical distribution can help measure the ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell again signaled growing concern about a softening labor market, but did not indicate whether the central bank would continue to lower interest rates to spur the ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered an upbeat report on the U.S. economy after the Fed’s first policymaking meeting of 2026. “Essentially, the economy has once again surprised us with its ...