Rystad researchers conclude there is a lower probability of the conflict escalating into a full-blown war and causing a huge spike in prices. But a potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran remains the most important market-moving event to watch for.

Israel’s military strikes against Iran are raising concerns that Tehran could retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, potentially disrupting oil and gas supplies and unleashing a fresh wave of inflation across the globe.

The greatest risk the oil markets face is that Iran retaliates against Israel airstrikes by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical to global energy shipments.